We reviewed 3 core patterns of change: gradual change, sudden shifts and dynamic evolution. These are the articles that were discussed for each.

Gradual change

Darwin,C. The origin of species. By means of natural selection. (1859).

Gause, G. The struggle for existence. (1934).

May, R. Simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics. Nature 261, 459–467 (1976). https://doi.org/10.1038/261459a0

Sudden shifts

Scheffer M, Hosper SH, Meijer ML, Moss B, Jeppesen E. Alternative equilibria in shallow lakes. Trends Ecol Evol. (1993). https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-5347(93)90254-M

Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J. et al. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413, 591–596 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1038/35098000

van Nes EH, Arani BMS, Staal A, van der Bolt B, Flores BM, Bathiany S, Scheffer M. What Do You Mean, 'Tipping Point'? Trends Ecol Evol. (2016)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2016.09.011

Lenton, T.M., Powell, T.W.R., Smith, S.R. et al. A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them. Sustain Sci 21, 201–220 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-025-01704-9

Scheffer M, Carpenter SR, Lenton TM, Bascompte J, Brock W, Dakos V, van de Koppel J, van de Leemput IA, Levin SA, van Nes EH, Pascual M, Vandermeer J. Anticipating critical transitions. Science. (2012)
Erratum in: Science. 2012 Nov 23;338(6110):1029.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1225244

Sterl X, Weinans E, van der Kaaden A, Doelman A, Rietkerk M. A review of dynamics in spatial savanna models. Ecological Modelling, Volume 517. (2026).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111621.

Dynamic evolution

Lotka, A. Elements of Physical Biology. (1925)

Hutchinson, G. E. “The Paradox of the Plankton.” The American Naturalist, vol. 95, no. 882. pp. 137–45. JSTOR. (1961) http://www.jstor.org/stable/2458386

Scheffer, M., Rinaldi, S., Huisman, J. et al. Why plankton communities have no equilibrium: solutions to the paradox. Hydrobiologia 491, 9–18 (2003).
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024404804748

Huisman, J., Weissing, F. Biodiversity of plankton by species oscillations and chaos. Nature 402, 407–410 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1038/46540

When to expect what pattern of change

Kerr, B., Riley, M., Feldman, M. et al. Local dispersal promotes biodiversity in a real-life game of rock–paper–scissors. Nature 418, 171–174 (2002).
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature00823

Allesina, S., Tang, S. Stability criteria for complex ecosystems. Nature 483, 205–208 (2012).
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10832

Heerkloss, R., & Klinkenberg, G. A long-term series of a planktonic foodweb: a case of chaotic dynamics. SIL Proceedings. (1998)
https://doi.org/10.1080/03680770.1995.11901083

End of list

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